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arnold layne

Anyone else concerned about the Wuhan Virus?

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Screw Wuhan. What virus that won't effect very many people at all should we be scared of next year? I want to start fearing in advance.

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8 hours ago, wasted said:

I went through two Chinese airports and I’m fine. I bought a bottle of Jim Beam in customs and took my mask off to drink it in the departure lounge. It’s hard to drink wearing a mask. 

We are fortunate to have our Chinese Insider. 

 

Where abouts are you in China wasted? I hear they quarantined three or four cities there. Imagine quarantining three NYCs. Crazy. Stay safe. 

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1 hour ago, Salsh Borski said:

Me and Mrs Borski have came down with flu so naturally we are googling the symptoms and scaring ourselves silly.  Timing eh?

 

where have she been importing her salami from?

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8 hours ago, arnold layne said:

We are fortunate to have our Chinese Insider. 

 

Where abouts are you in China wasted? I hear they quarantined three or four cities there. Imagine quarantining three NYCs. Crazy. Stay safe. 

Actually I left to go to Taiwan for Chinese New Year.

 

I think they are very cautious about these things. So it can seem more serious than it is. Especially at CNY where millions are cramming on trains and planes. I was on one of those floor escalators at the airport and thought this is like that movie Outbreak. 

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5 hours ago, sixes said:

 

where have she been importing her salami from?

Misers basement. He cures it himself 

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16 hours ago, wasted said:

I’m going into the mountains of Taiwan to hide from the virus. I think if I drink whisky and eat hotdogs for 7 days the coast will be clear. 

Reminds me of that guy from the horror movie "Cabin Fever." Only I hope you a better fate.

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1 minute ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

pretty sure i have the wuhan virus

my boomer roommate must have gotten it from one of his homeless junkie friends and then transferred it to me

my throat is sore and i'm getting cold night sweats

i won't make it but i hope i live long enough to see act 1 of the stand play out irl

Does socialist canada give you free healthcare

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22 minutes ago, uruguns said:

Does socialist canada give you free healthcare

no thats just for the immigrants.

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28 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

pretty sure i have the wuhan virus

my boomer roommate must have gotten it from one of his homeless junkie friends and then transferred it to me

my throat is sore and i'm getting cold night sweats

i won't make it but i hope i live long enough to see act 1 of the stand play out irl

Careful, if you have it, there's only a 98% chance you'll survive.

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chinese kill each other by eating stupid shit

iranians kill each other by believing in dumb shit.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

pretty sure i have the wuhan virus

my boomer roommate must have gotten it from one of his homeless junkie friends and then transferred it to me

my throat is sore and i'm getting cold night sweats

i won't make it but i hope i live long enough to see act 1 of the stand play out irl

Image result for november rain gif

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Just now, Dr. Strangelove said:

 

we're all infected

We are the walking dead.

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http://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1220919589623803905.html

http://twitter.com/DrEricDing

Harvard PHD Epidemiologist

 

Text:

HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating... #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreak

 

“We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing. We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.”!!!!

 

SUMMARY: so what does this mean for the world??? We are now faced with the most virulent virus 🦠 epidemic the world has ever seen. An R0=3.8 means that it exceeds SARS’s modest 0.49 viral attack rate by 7.75x — almost 8 fold! A virus that spreads 8 faster than SARS cannot be stopped by containment alone. A 99% quarantine lockdown containment of Wuhan will not even reduce the epidemic’s spread by even 1/3rd in the next 2 weeks. Thus, I really hate to be the epidemiologist who has to admit this, but we are potentially faced with possibly an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza. Let’s hope it doesn’t reach that level but we now live in the modern world 🌎 with faster ✈️+ 🚞 than 1918. @WHO and @CDCgov needs to declare public health emergency ASAP!

 

What is the typical R0 attack rate for the seasonal flu in most years? It’s around an R0=1.28. The 2009 flu pandemic? R0=1.48. The 1918 Spanish Flu? 1.80. This new #WuhanCoronavirus reproductive value again? R0=3.8

 

...and it gets even worse, the Lancet now reports that the coronavirus is contagious even when *no symptoms*: specifically: “crucial to isolate patients... quarantine contacts as early as possible because asymptomatic infection appears possible”!

 

Let’s pretend the 3.8 estimate is too high (there’s unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this virus’s R0=2.5, that’s still 2x higher than seasonal flu’s 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks

Edited by Dr. Strangelove

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