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The Dems have completely lost the plot. I have voted Dem or 3rd party almost exclusively (voted for McCain in a primary) my whole life, but 2016 to 2020 radicalized me against these sleazy, lying

#ThrowbackThursday   4 years ago today, Hillary Clinton was "leading Trump by 14% in nationwide polls"   Cc: @Downzy

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Dems obsessing about the polls again. 

 

I saw an interesting stat yesterday. 

 

There are two polls usually carried out but only one gets reported on. 

 

1: Who will you vote for? 

 

2: Who do you think will win?

 

The media focuses all its attention on the answer to the first question and rarely reports on the other. 

 

Something like 70% of the time the trend in the first poll gets the outcome wrong. We all saw that with Hilary in its funniest ever example. Today Biden leads Trump on this by 10% nationally. With Hilary it was 14% over Trump. 

 

Now with the second poll question the answer usually predicts the correct outcome 70% of the time or some really high figure compared to the first question. 

 

In that poll as of today, Trump leads Biden by 10%

 

 

So if all that is true, and I have no idea as I think polls are bullshit and don't pay attention to them, then Trump is leading on the one poll that gets the outcome right more than any other poll out there.

 

Interesting. 

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56 minutes ago, John Bonham said:

#ThrowbackThursday

 

4 years ago today, Hillary Clinton was "leading Trump by 14% in nationwide polls"

 

Cc: @Downzy

I love the gaslighting that is going on with the 2016 election polls. "They were mostly right" yeah when the pollsters tightened all the polls going into the last week so save their asses. Even then you still had polls showing Hillary up +6 or +9. There were two polls that got it right, one was Rassmussen which had Hillary at +2% in the National polls. Rassmussen's latest poll has Biden at +3% Nationally but Trump up in most battleground states and only behind 1-2% in others. Why was Rassmussen right?

 

He sampled the correct amount of Republicans based on turnout from previous elections. Republicans have been polling around 33-34% but every national poll always sample Republicans at 24% and Democrats at 35%. ABC had a poll in June that polled 31% Republicans and 37% Democrats(Undersampling by 2% and oversampling by 2%) and they had Biden up 5%. This is how they get his approval down as well, and RealClearPolitics even suppressed Rassmussen's poll in the aggregate. You poll 1200 voters and 24% of them are Republican and 35-37% are Democrat, is it really any real wonder why he is at 10-12% under water lol.


Nate Silver made a tweet the other night which basically boils down to "I'm protecting my ass." It basically said the polls aren't as accurate as they were in 2004-2012, also went on to say how Trump could very much win and shouldn't be counted out and polls shouldn't be used to predict what is going to happen. You look at some of these polls and you laugh, Biden up 15 in Florida and Michigan. Put this into perspective, Obama at the time had the most votes by an incumbent in primaries in history(shattered by Trump) he had the highest black turnout in history, very high hispanic turnout and a unified party. Going up against Mitt Romney, one of the worst presidential candidatesin history. Obama managed to beat Romney by less than 1% in Florida. Somehow I'm supposed to believe Joe fucking Biden is up 1% let alone 15%?

tenor.gif

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Facekicker said:

Why don't the polls ever reflect the percentage breakdown in the elections between republicans, democrats and independents? 

That's what I don't get. Somehow all these pollsters think it is accurate to oversample Democrats or undersample Republicans. The problem with "independents" is they tend to lean Republican or Democrat which can make oversampling and undersampling a big thing that can swing polls many points. Pollsters came out with an article and said a couple of weeks ago they worry they are "undersampling Trump posters" and then the article went on to say that it is hard getting a hold of Trump supporters. It didn't say how, my guess is they answer the phone and hang up or they just refuse to answer(shocking). The article said the people who are most likely to answer polls are college educated white people which skews heavily Democrat. If you have trouble getting hardcore Trump fans to answer your polls, what is going to happen with Independents that lean Republican? Most likely you are going to get more Democrat leaning Independents sampled. I'm not some wise and political scholar like Downzy but I'm a registered Independent voter but I lean right and the pandemic has pushed me more right just out of disdain for the Democrats.

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6 hours ago, bran said:

Never thought I would see a president in my lifetime be as anti war as Trump. Pulling another 12,000 troops out of Germany, just fantastic news.

This is a big plus point for Trump. And he’s not starting new wars. I know Yemen is a disaster but given that they all are trying to get him, doing something about it is tough. 

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It doesn’t matter who wins the election. Culturally they play you against each other, then just do whatever suits them. Trump signs whatever they put in front of him. What’s the matter with Jews, mama. 

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22 hours ago, Donald Trump said:

All we hear from CNN is that Black Lives Matter but there is this whole other movement going on called Make America Great Again.

 CNN doesn't cover any of the violence or rhetoric. They wont even interview police chiefs live (Detroit's Chief was EXCITED the Feds were coming) without pre-questions and a tape delay so they can edit it to more fit there narrative. Because interviewing law enforcement DESTROYS there narrative. Its pathetic & sad how there viewers actually believe the Feds have caused all the violence. The BLM BS needs to stop. They can be black & there lives do matter, but what the fuck does that have to do with burning, stealing, killing, looting & gas-lighting the country?? Why televise the National Anthem if the only purpose is to create an even larger divide in the country?? The basketball courts have huge BLM mural on it, every player (except 2, white guys have no choice) kneels. Every coach, training staff member etc, all kneel. If that's what there going to do every game, then don't televise it. But they will, because the stations they play on are even more liberal than the so called "movement" is.

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On 7/31/2020 at 12:33 AM, bran said:

Never thought I would see a president in my lifetime be as anti war as Trump. Pulling another 12,000 troops out of Germany, just fantastic news.

This is the only thing that has really surprised me and many others about Trump's presidency.

 

Because he is so inflammatory and has a history of taking a hard-line stance on everything, I thought for sure he'd endorse military action more often than most presidents.

 

 

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I really love how, now some schools have reopened, we're hearing about kids already getting the virus and how irresponsible it was to reopen.

 

But protests involving literally thousands of people have ~nothing~ to do with the situation we’re in right now. It’s not even a matter of passing judgment on whether or not the protests were good or bad. Mass gatherings were like the one big no-no for months and suddenly there is a safe carve out for certain gatherings?

 

Big protest in Germany today about pandemic restrictions. I wonder if that one will have ~nothing~ to do with an uptick in cases.

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